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Zuma visit to focus on Zimbabwe, nationalisation as U.S. extends sanctions

Tuesday, March 02, 2010   |  Comments: 0
By Michael Trapido ;

President Jacob Zuma, now facing the sort of condemnation previously reserved for former President Thabo Mbeki over South Africa's stance on Zimbabwe, is expected to call for the lifting of sanctions amid the breaking news Monday that the US was extending theirs against President Robert Mugabe's regime for another year.

President Barack Obama confirmed that Zimbabwe's deep political crisis remained unresolved pursuant to "the actions and policies of certain members of the Government of Zimbabwe and other persons to undermine Zimbabwe's democratic processes or institutions."

In accordance therewith both the European Union and the United States are maintaining sanctions which include a travel ban and asset freeze on Mugabe, his wife and inner circle as a protest against disputed elections which resulted in human rights abuses on a large scale.

This follows the July 2008, widening of sanctions by the US Treasury Department when punitive measures were taken against 17 companies or entities and an Omani national for their association with the regime.

Zimbabwe, as a result of Mugabe and Zanu-PF's refusal to relinquish power even after losing an election they had rigged, was forced to enter into a power sharing agreement. The aim at the time was ostensibly to mend an economy that had recorded the worst ever levels of inflation in the planets history and ease political tensions following an aborted Presidential run-off which saw opposition supporters being murdered and tortured.

Subsequently the economy has started to show some signs that it may be at the start of the process that it will have to undergo on the road to recovery despite the added burden of having Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe governor, Gideon Gono still on board. Unfortunately his presence together with that of Mugabe continues to hinder investor confidence in a country where law and order is often ignored by the government.

As Obama confirms the "crisis constituted by the actions and policies of certain members of the government of Zimbabwe and other persons to undermine Zimbabwe's democratic processes or institutions has not been resolved. These actions and policies continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the foreign policy of the United States. For these reasons, I have determined that it is necessary to continue this national emergency and to maintain in force the sanctions to respond to this threat."

A good example of the conduct complained of by Obama was the confirmation in February that Mugabe's Zanu-PF party, having totally destroyed Zimbabwe's mainstay agriculture through racist land grabs, were now turning their attention towards its business sector. A law which they had passed during 2008 - when parliament was still dominated by Mugabe's lawmakers - and which requires white businessmen and women to cede control of their companies to black partners, was according to them coming into effect from March 1 2010. Those that refuse to comply with this racist law face possible imprisonment of up to five years.

As clear an indication as any, that as far as the Mugabe half of the power sharing goes, the same approach to the economy that had destroyed it previously remains the order of the day.

In terms of the power sharing itself negotiations are currently deadlocked with finance minister Tendai Biti, a respected MDC leader, calling for the SADC regional bloc to step in. Zanu-PF leaders have made it clear however that there will be no concessions until sanctions are lifted.

Against this backdrop and international anger at South Africa's refusal to get tough with Mugabe, Zuma is going to be calling for the lifting of sanctions. Unsurprisingly the British media are of the view that the South African President is going to be facing pickets and protests by Zimbabwean activists during his visit.

The other key area to be addressed by Zuma is going to be the growing investor concerns over the threat of nationalising the mining sector, South Africa's largest foreign currency earner. While internal calls continue to grow from within the Tripartite Alliance and the ANCYL, Zuma's job of convincing the EU and other potential suitors becomes infinitely more difficult.

Both De Beers and Anglo American have their headquarters in London and both have expressed concerns at the mixed signals Zuma sent during his recent State of the Nation address. In response to the calls by the ANCYL, Cosatu and the YCL, the ANC and Zuma have suggested that there is no prospect of a change in ownership rules in the short or medium term.

In accordance with the current rhetoric this appears to suggest that all is well until 2014 whereafter it's good luck to any investor who happens to have poured money into any South African mining venture.

The irony of it all is that Mugabe blames economic implosion in Zimbabwe on sanctions when it was clearly his destruction of agriculture, their main industry, by land seizures - a crude form of nationalisation - which achieved this. Despite this Zuma is going to try to convince the EU and US to lift those sanctions while simultaneously telling the same people that nationalisation of South Africa's primary industry, mining, which will have the same devastating effect here, is not a problem in the short or medium term.

Someone needs to explain to the President that in the markets that he is addressing, short and medium term are but an introduction to the bigger picture and his failure to rule it out completely is going to earn him lots of smiles and the faint but audible sound of chequebooks closing.

In the case of Zimbabwe and South Africa the lesson needs to be learned that you cannot carry on rhetoric and unacceptable conduct regardless and then expect an international community, that is living in the information age and sees and hears everything, to accept your bona fides.

What Cosatu, the ANCYL and YCL are doing at present is going to cost South Africa investment on a large scale with the only question being how long will it take before they concede this.

If Mugabe is anything to go by then it's until death do us part because 5 million on the brink of starvation and millions in exile has hardly given him cause to pause.

And in South Africa a certain prominent local youth leader believes that not only is he Africa's favourite son but a shining example of what can be achieved.

He's far too modest South Africa has a far bigger population and by following Zimbabwe's finest, should he ever come to power, he can make those numbers seem like small change.
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